Font Rants on Many Subjects

Crap this is going to get really really bad really fast. Ashura is one of the most important dates in the Shi'a religous calendar. Coordinated attacks in Baghdad and Karbala ( the most important Shi'a city); Al-Sistani (the most important Shi'a Imam in Iraq) blames the US occupation. I would say there is a very high chance that Iraq is going to turn into a blood bath. I would say 90% chance of major riots tomorrow. Virtual certanty that there will be reprisals on a wide scale against sunis, and a 70% chance of low intensity civil war starting; and about 50/50 that a Bosnia style event happens. I've hear a lot of experts say we don't have enough troops over there to keep the peace; and if things get out of hand; we may not be able to calm things down.
This may become the Iraqi equivalent of the Tet offensive. In 1968 the Tet offensive pushed the highly ambivilant US media and powers that be, into the decided opinion that the war was unwinnable (as Cronkite susinctly put it). We can probably restore a fragile peace in Iraq in the short term, but what happens when a US barricks is overrun and a few marines are dragged through the streets by rioters. Then what? This administration won't cut and run, neither will any responsible US administration. They will have to look for a "peace with honor", however negotiating the terms of our exit from this tar baby will be a mess because every one over there wants us to leave on terms that puts them in the best position. Instead of negotiating with the North Vietnamise, we will be negotiating with four or five major factions; each with their own agenda.