Font Rants on Many Subjects

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Friday, March 05, 2004

 
Water and wealth is the key to this bad news from Iraq. Font reads between the lines for you. Al-Sistani doesn't want an agreement yet. Why would he; the current situation gives him a lot of power. The longer there isn't a civil authority in Iraq; the more powerful he is going to become because the Mosque will be the only place where people can go to get services; and his militia will be the ones keeping order. His strategy is simple, pressure for direct elections; delay while he builds his political base. I think he is aiming for a situation where the situation destablises just enough that we (the US) pull out; and his group takes over in the hastily organized direct elections. This leaves the Shi'ites in charge of Iraq the same way the Suni's used to be. The problem is if the situation destablizes too much Iraq will break apart; and the country is definatly worth more together. The Shi'ites don't want to give up the northern oil fields, and the water supplies that flow from up North. So they need to strike a balence where the country is chaotic enough to drive out the Americans; but not so crazy that Baghdad becomes Beruit.

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